Summary 2 hope Definitions Forecasting is the process of estimation in uncharted situations A forecast is a predicti on based on knowledge of sometime(prenominal) behavior Requirements for a forecast Validity disagreement evaluation of probability Good forecasting is based on science, art, and peck Forecasting is both a science and an art apprehension forecasting equations statistics/ throwback analysis Art undecomposed at guessing (judgmental forecasting) honourable at picking the localise fictitious character of forecasting equation We forecast phenomena and processes which we are unable to dominance 3 4 Forecasting Basic Steps The forecast Time Series Models Extrapolation of historic selective information into the proximo Plotted on graph and analysed for four raw corporal comp 1nts of variation 5 Step 6 Monitor the forecast Step 5 Prepare the forecast Step 4 Gather and fail data Step 3 film a forecasting technique Step 2 prove a clock horizon Step 1 tally purpose of forecast Trend - long-term movement in data Seasonali ty - short-term habitue variations in data ! make pass wavelike variations of more than one years period Irregular variations - caused by uncommon circumstances Random variations - caused by chance Simple heavy amount, median, mode Simple woful average, double moving average Exponential smoothing Linear regression Multiplicative model 6 Examples Used where good historical data is available 1 Elements of any...If you want to get a ample essay, order it on our website: OrderCustomPaper.com
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